Getting lucky with posting on Hacker News

You know the feeling of watching your post quickly drowning in the Newest section of Hacker News, right? It seems like pure, chaotic luck. Or is it?

I tried to crack the code of successful submissions.

I built a tool that parses Hacker News every two minutes and logs the state into the database. The program has been working for 14 days so far.

For the latest two weeks, there were 13846 stories, and only 1403 of them reached the first page of Hacker News.

It’s 10.1329 percents. It doesn’t sound too bad, does it? It turns out every tenth story hits the first page.

All time values are in UTC.

Stories and chances to hit the first page

It seems like Saturday and Sunday are the least active days when it comes to new stories. But it means you have the biggest chance to hit the first page during these days.

Total number of stories and chances by hour

Let’s take a look what about best hours to publish then.

Votes and overall activity

The watcher continuously checks Hacker News and logs the current position and the score of every story into the database.

Let’s see what the most active days and hours were.

Finally, fun facts

The longest living posts on the first page:

I’m going to analyze the statistics even further, it’s just a matter of time.

Follow me on Twitter to get updates: @reconquestio

Have an idea or want to contribute? Tweet/Email me.

Missing charts

Other researches

Thanks to Ivan Mir for reading drafts of this.